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Econometrica
Article
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zbMATH Open
Article . 2020
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Econometrica
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2017
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
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Forecasting With Dynamic Panel Data Models

Forecasting with dynamic panel data models
Authors: Liu, Laura; Moon, Hyungsik Roger; Schorfheide, Frank;

Forecasting With Dynamic Panel Data Models

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross‐sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients under a correlated random effects distribution. This formula utilizes cross‐sectional information to transform the unit‐specific (quasi) maximum likelihood estimator into an approximation of the posterior mean under a prior distribution that equals the population distribution of the random coefficients. We show that the risk of a predictor based on a nonparametric kernel estimate of the Tweedie correction is asymptotically equivalent to the risk of a predictor that treats the correlated random effects distribution as known (ratio optimality). Our empirical Bayes predictor performs well compared to various competitors in a Monte Carlo study. In an empirical application, we use the predictor to forecast revenues for a large panel of bank holding companies and compare forecasts that condition on actual and severely adverse macroeconomic conditions.

Keywords

Tweedie's formula, Econometrics (econ.EM), forecasting, bank stress tests, Causal inference from observational studies, Inference from stochastic processes and prediction, panel data, FOS: Economics and business, ratio optimality, Applications of statistics to economics, empirical Bayes, Economics - Econometrics

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
36
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze