
arXiv: 1709.10193
This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross‐sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients under a correlated random effects distribution. This formula utilizes cross‐sectional information to transform the unit‐specific (quasi) maximum likelihood estimator into an approximation of the posterior mean under a prior distribution that equals the population distribution of the random coefficients. We show that the risk of a predictor based on a nonparametric kernel estimate of the Tweedie correction is asymptotically equivalent to the risk of a predictor that treats the correlated random effects distribution as known (ratio optimality). Our empirical Bayes predictor performs well compared to various competitors in a Monte Carlo study. In an empirical application, we use the predictor to forecast revenues for a large panel of bank holding companies and compare forecasts that condition on actual and severely adverse macroeconomic conditions.
Tweedie's formula, Econometrics (econ.EM), forecasting, bank stress tests, Causal inference from observational studies, Inference from stochastic processes and prediction, panel data, FOS: Economics and business, ratio optimality, Applications of statistics to economics, empirical Bayes, Economics - Econometrics
Tweedie's formula, Econometrics (econ.EM), forecasting, bank stress tests, Causal inference from observational studies, Inference from stochastic processes and prediction, panel data, FOS: Economics and business, ratio optimality, Applications of statistics to economics, empirical Bayes, Economics - Econometrics
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