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Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
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Article . 2019
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Spreading speeds of epidemic models with nonlocal delays

Authors: Guo Lin; Shuxia Pan; Xiang-Ping Yan;

Spreading speeds of epidemic models with nonlocal delays

Abstract

We estimate the spreading speeds in diffusive epidemic models with nonlocal delays, nonlinear incidence rate and constant recruitment rate. The purpose is to model the process that the infective invades the habitat of the susceptible, and they coexist eventually. In order to focus on our idea, a system with a nonlinear incidence rate is firstly studied, which implies a saturation level of the infective individuals and monotone incidence rate. When the initial value of the infective has nonempty compact support, we prove the rough spreading speed that equals the minimal wave speed of traveling wave solutions in the known results. Then for a general (nonmonotone) incidence rate, we obtain the spreading speeds by constructing auxiliary systems admitting a monotone incidence rate, and prove the convergence of solutions on any compact spatial interval. Furthermore, some numerical examples are given to estimate the invasion speed and show the nontrivial effect of time delay and spatial nonlocality, which implies that the stronger spatial nonlocality leads to larger spreading speeds.

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Keywords

Time Factors, Epidemiology, PDEs in connection with biology, chemistry and other natural sciences, Incidence, Population Dynamics, auxiliary equation, asymptotic spreading, Communicable Diseases, Models, Biological, nonmonotone system, Nonlinear Dynamics, QA1-939, Humans, Computer Simulation, Epidemics, TP248.13-248.65, Mathematics, Algorithms, Biotechnology, Probability

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    influence
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
19
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold