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Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
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Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
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Multiple endemic states in age-structured $SIR$ epidemic models

Authors: FRANCESCHETTI A; PUGLIESE A; BREDA, Dimitri;

Multiple endemic states in age-structured $SIR$ epidemic models

Abstract

SIR age-structured models are very often used as a basic model of epidemic spread. Yet, their behaviour, under generic assumptions on contact rates between different age classes, is not completely known, and, in the most detailed analysis so far, Inaba (1990) was able to prove uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium only under a rather restrictive condition. Here, we show an example in the form of a 3x3 contact matrix in which multiple non-trivial steady states exist. This instance of non-uniqueness of positive equilibria differs from most existing ones for epidemic models, since it arises not from a backward transcritical bifurcation at the disease free equilibrium, but through two saddle-node bifurcations of the positive equilibrium. The dynamical behaviour of the model is analysed numerically around the range where multiple endemic equilibria exist; many other features are shown to occur, from coexistence of multiple attractive periodic solutions, some with extremely long period, to quasi-periodic and chaotic attractors. It is also shown that, if the contact rates are in the form of a 2x2 WAIFW matrix, uniqueness of non-trivial steady states always holds, so that 3 is the minimum dimension of the contact matrix to allow for multiple endemic equilibria.

Country
Italy
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Keywords

Endemic Diseases, numerical bifurcation analysis, multiple endemic equilibria, age-structured epidemic model, Communicable Diseases, Models, Biological, Disease Outbreaks, age-structured epidemic model; multiple endemic equilibria; periodic and chaotic solutions, QA1-939, Humans, Computer Simulation, periodic and chaotic solutions, TP248.13-248.65, Mathematics, fixed point index., Biotechnology

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
19
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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