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Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Article . 2007 . Peer-reviewed
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Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Article
License: CC BY
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Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland

Authors: Gerardo Chowell; Catherine E. Ammon; Nicolas W. Hengartner; James M. Hyman;

Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland

Abstract

At the outset of an influenza pandemic, early estimates of the number of secondary cases generated by a primary influenza case (reproduction number, R) and its associated uncertainty can help determine the intensity of interventions necessary for control. Using a compartmental model and hospital notification data of the first two waves of the Spanish flu pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland in 1918, we estimate the reproduction number from the early phase of the pandemic waves. For the spring and fall pandemic waves, we estimate reproduction numbers of 1:57 (95% CI: 1:45, 1:70) and 3:10 (2:81, 3:39), respectively, from the initial epidemic phase comprising the first 10 epidemic days of the corresponding wave. Estimates of the variance of our point estimates of R were computed via a parametric bootstrap. We compare these estimates with others obtained using different observation windows to provide insight into how early into an epidemic the reproduction number can be estimated.

Keywords

Incidence, Population Dynamics, spanish flu; 1918 influenza pandemic; reproduction number;boot- strapping; nonlinear curve fitting; uncertaintyquantification; geneva; switzerland., Models, Biological, Risk Assessment, Disease Outbreaks, Risk Factors, Influenza, Human, QA1-939, Humans, TP248.13-248.65, Mathematics, Switzerland, Biotechnology

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
27
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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