One of the several variants of global warming is the effect of agricultural development on ecosystem. Each of these variants creates a global threat in terms of a cause-effect relationship. In this study, a projection was made to discover possible levels of major elements of agricultural development such as chemical manure, irrigation water, use of pesticide in 2020 year. Thus, the effect of agriculture on ecosystem in the future was estimated on the basis of world scale and Turkey. On the other hand, in the analysis made in accordance with conjectural criterions, it is revealed that Turkey which is acknowledged to be developing is under threat in terms of sustainable development. © 2006 Asian Network for Scientific Information.