
Cet article etudie le risque de defaut associe a la dette publique comme la consequence de l'interaction entre l'Etat et les preteurs prives. Dans ce modele, l'Etat ne dispose que d'un controle imparfait des finances publiques. Une suite de chocs budgetaires peut alors porter la dette au-dela du seuil de soutenabilite, seuil communement defini par la valeur actualisee au taux sans risque des excedents futurs. Ce risque d'insoutenabilite genere en retour un important risque d'illiquidite associe au refus des investisseurs de renouveler leurs engagements. Au terme de cette etude, le niveau maximal d'endettement acceptable par les investisseurs se revele potentiellement tres inferieur au seuil de soutenabilite.
[QFIN]Quantitative Finance [q-fin], [QFIN] Quantitative Finance [q-fin], jel: jel:E62, jel: jel:H63, jel: jel:F34
[QFIN]Quantitative Finance [q-fin], [QFIN] Quantitative Finance [q-fin], jel: jel:E62, jel: jel:H63, jel: jel:F34
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