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Can ESP Yield Abnormal Returns?

Authors: Lawrence D. Brown;

Can ESP Yield Abnormal Returns?

Abstract

Foreknowledge of earnings surprises is more valuable than trading on known earnings surprises. Earnings surprises are predictable to a considerable extent. I evaluate the performance of an earnings surprise predictor (ESP), which foretells how close analyst expectations of quarterly earnings numbers will be to upcoming earnings numbers. I examine performance over nine years, adjust returns for those of the S&P 500 index, and I adopt an implementable trading strategy. I show that ESP outperforms the S&P 500 index in all nine years. I also show that a weighted portfolio assigning higher weights to stocks expected to have the largest positive earnings surprises has a higher return and a lower variance than a portfolio that assigns equal weights to all rank groups.

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Average
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