Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ مجلة آفاق للدراسات ا...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
مجلة آفاق للدراسات الإنسانية والتطبيقية
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Crossref
addClaim

Forecasting Wheat Production in Libya Using ARIMA Model-ARIMA

Authors: Fouzi Salih Faraj;

Forecasting Wheat Production in Libya Using ARIMA Model-ARIMA

Abstract

The wheat crop is a strategic crop in Libya as a food crop and a raw material for some food industries. The study aimed to predict the amount of wheat production in context of Libya during the next six years from 2023-2028. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been used and relied on Food and Agriculture Organization data from the period 19961 to 2022. The study findings indicated that the ARIMA (AR (1), MA (9), MA (12) model was the most appropriate model for forecasting among selected ARIMA models because it had significant coefficients, lowest volatility, highest AdjR2, and lowest AIC. Furthermore, it passed all diagnostic tests, where the residuals are white noise and follow normal distribution. Also, there is no heteroscedasticity in the model and had good predictive ability. Finally, the study concluded that wheat production will witness an upward trend during the forecast period (2023-2028).upward trend during the forecast period (2023-2028).

Related Organizations
  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
hybrid