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Mathematics
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The Role of Assumptions in Ohlson Model Performance: Lessons for Improving Equity-Value Modeling

Authors: Olga Fullana; Mariano González; David Toscano;

The Role of Assumptions in Ohlson Model Performance: Lessons for Improving Equity-Value Modeling

Abstract

In this paper, we test whether the short-run econometric conditions for the basic assumptions of the Ohlson valuation model hold, and then we relate these results with the fulfillment of the short-run econometric conditions for this model to be effective. Better future modeling motivated us to analyze to what extent the assumptions involved in this seminal model are not good enough approximations to solve the firm valuation problem, causing poor model performance. The model is based on the well-known dividend discount model and the residual income valuation model, and it adds a linear information model, which is a time series model by nature. Therefore, we adopt the time series approach. In the presence of non-stationary variables, we focus our research on US-listed firms for which more than forty years of data with the required cointegration properties to use error correction models are available. The results show that the clean surplus relation assumption has no impact on model performance, while the unbiased accounting property assumption has an important effect on it. The results also emphasize the uselessness of forcing valuation models to match the value displacement property of dividends.

Country
Spain
Keywords

information dynamics model (lim), error correction model (ecm), :CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS [UNESCO], QA1-939, residual income valuation model (rim), Ohlson valuation model, discount dividends model (DDM), Clean surplus relation, error correction model (ECM), displacement property, Error correction model, Displacement property, conservatism correction, UNESCO::CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS, residual income valuation model (RIM), ohlson valuation model, Discount dividends model, Income valuation model, discount dividends model (ddm), clean surplus relation, Conservatism correction, Mathematics, information dynamics model (LIM)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold