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Mathematics
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Mathematics
Article
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Mathematics
Article . 2020
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Non-Homogeneous Semi-Markov and Markov Renewal Processes and Change of Measure in Credit Risk

Authors: P.-C.G. Vassiliou;

Non-Homogeneous Semi-Markov and Markov Renewal Processes and Change of Measure in Credit Risk

Abstract

For a G-inhomogeneous semi-Markov chain and G-inhomogeneous Markov renewal processes, we study the change from real probability measure into a forward probability measure. We find the values of risky bonds using the forward probabilities that the bond will not default up to maturity time for both processes. It is established in the form of a theorem that the forward probability measure does not alter the semi Markov structure. In addition, foundation of a G-inhohomogeneous Markov renewal process is done and a theorem is provided where it is proved that the Markov renewal process is maintained under the forward probability measure. We show that for an inhomogeneous semi-Markov there are martingales that characterize it. We show that the same is true for a Markov renewal processes. We discuss in depth the calibration of the G-inhomogeneous semi-Markov chain model and propose an algorithm for it. We conclude with an application for risky bonds.

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Keywords

credit rating; non-homogeneous semi-Markov chains; non-homogeneous Markov renewal processes; change of measure, QA1-939, change of measure, non-homogeneous Markov renewal processes, credit rating, Mathematics, non-homogeneous semi-Markov chains

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold