Persistence of native forests is a global concern. We aimed at unveiling the main factors affecting tree recruitment in Portuguese native forests, modelling sapling data collected during the 5th Portuguese Forest Inventory, for five main Quercus taxa. Zero-inflated count data models allowed us to examine simultaneously (i) the absence of tree recruitment and (ii) the density of tree recruitment. Using Akaike weights, we obtained importance values for 15 relevant explanatory variables. Results showed that seed availability and climatic variables were determinant to understand regional absence of regeneration for all taxa. Seed availability was also an important driver of sapling density, except for Quercus suber. Other variables impacted on regeneration density: grazing hindered Q. suber regeneration; regeneration of Q. rotundifolia and Q. suber was lower in flat areas; recurrent fire hampered the regeneration of Q. robur and Q. pyrenaica; Q. broteroi and Q. pyrenaica showed depressed regeneration in regions where forest plantations abound, while Q. robur and Q. suber seemed selectively protected. We conclude that caution is warranted when analysing pooled data for Quercus spp. regeneration, as different variables affected Quercus taxa differently. Finally, we suggest dedicated management actions to enhance the establishment of new native forests.