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Forests
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Forests
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Forests
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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Predictive Model for Bark Beetle Outbreaks in European Forests

Authors: Ángel Fernández-Carrillo; Antonio Franco-Nieto; María Julia Yagüe-Ballester; Marta Gómez-Giménez;

Predictive Model for Bark Beetle Outbreaks in European Forests

Abstract

Bark beetle outbreaks and forest mortality have rocketed in European forests because of warmer winters, intense droughts, and poor management. The methods developed to predict a bark beetle outbreak have three main limitations: (i) a small-spatial-scale implementation; (ii) specific field-based input datasets that are usually hard to obtain at large scales; and (iii) predictive models constrained by coarse climatic factors. Therefore, a methodological approach accounting for a comprehensive set of environmental traits that can predict a bark beetle outbreak accurately is needed. In particular, we aimed to (i) analyze the influence of environmental traits that cause bark beetle outbreaks; (ii) compare different machine learning architectures for predicting bark beetle attacks; and (iii) map the attack probability before the start of the bark beetle life cycle. Random Forest regression achieved the best-performing results. The predicted bark beetle damage reached a high robustness in the test area (F1 = 96.9, OA = 94.4) and showed low errors (CE = 2.0, OE = 4.2). Future improvements should focus on including additional variables, e.g., forest age and validation sites. Remote sensing-based methods contributed to detecting bark beetle outbreaks in large extensive forested areas in a cost-effective and robust manner.

Keywords

predictive model, disturbance, remote sensing, machine learning, predisposition, bark beetles, forest pest management

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold