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Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry

Authors: Theresa Diener; Theresa Diener; Ingo Sasgen; Cécile Agosta; Johannes J. Fürst; Matthias H. Braun; Hannes Konrad; +1 Authors

Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry

Abstract

The dynamic stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future global sea-level rise. Essential for improving projections of the ice sheet evolution is the understanding of the ongoing trends and accelerations of mass loss in the context of ice dynamics. Here, we examine accelerations of mass change of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2002 to 2020 using data from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; 2002–2017) and its follow-on GRACE-FO (2018-present) satellite missions. By subtracting estimates of net snow accumulation provided by re-analysis data and regional climate models from GRACE/GRACE-FO mass changes, we isolate variations in ice-dynamic discharge and compare them to direct measurements based on the remote sensing of the surface-ice velocity (2002–2017). We show that variations in the GRACE/GRACE-FO time series are modulated by variations in regional snow accumulation caused by large-scale atmospheric circulation. We show for the first time that, after removal of these surface effects, accelerations of ice-dynamic discharge from GRACE/GRACE-FO agree well with those independently derived from surface-ice velocities. For 2002–2020, we recover a discharge acceleration of -5.3 ± 2.2 Gt yr−2 for the entire ice sheet; these increasing losses originate mainly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea Embayment regions (68%), with additional significant contributions from Dronning Maud Land (18%) and the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf region (13%). Under the assumption that the recovered rates and accelerations of mass loss persisted independent of any external forcing, Antarctica would contribute 7.6 ± 2.9 cm to global mean sea-level rise by the year 2100, more than two times the amount of 2.9 ± 0.6 cm obtained by linear extrapolation of current GRACE/GRACE-FO mass loss trends.

Countries
Germany, France, Belgium, Germany
Keywords

550, DDC Classification::5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik :: 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie :: 550 Geowissenschaften, surface mass balance, Physique, chimie, mathématiques & sciences de la terre, Science, Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences, sea-level rise (SLR), [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, climate indices, ice-dynamic discharge, Q, ISMIP6, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Sciences de la terre & géographie physique, GRACE/GRACE-FO, Earth sciences & physical geography, Antarctica, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, mass balance

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
33
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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gold