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Solar Geoengineering, Learning, and Experimentation

Authors: David Kelly; Garth Heutel; Juan Moreno-Cruz; Soheil Shayegh;

Solar Geoengineering, Learning, and Experimentation

Abstract

Solar geoengineering (SGE) can combat climate change by directly reducing temperatures. Both SGE and the climate itself are surrounded by great uncertainties. Implementing SGE affects learning about these uncertainties. We model endogenous learning over two uncertainties: the sensitivity of temperatures to carbon concentrations (the climate sensitivity), and the effectiveness of SGE in lowering temperatures. We present both theoretical and simulation results from an integrated assessment model, focusing on the informational value of SGE experimentation. Surprisingly, under current calibrated conditions, SGE deployment slows learning, causing a less informed decision. For any reasonably sized experimental SGE deployment, the temperature change becomes closer to zero, and thus more obscured by noisy weather shocks. Still, some SGE use is optimal despite, not because of, its informational value. The optimal amount of SGE is very sensitive to beliefs about both uncertainties.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze