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PREDIKSI TINGKAT PRODUKSI KOPI MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI LINEAR

Authors: Katemba, Petrus; Djoh, Rosita Koro;

PREDIKSI TINGKAT PRODUKSI KOPI MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI LINEAR

Abstract

Kabupaten Manggarai menjadi sentra produksi kopi di Nusa Tenggara Timur, yang dikenaldengan sebutan “Kopi Tuan”. Kopi dari daerah ini menjadi andalan ekspor hasil perkebunan, yangtelah menembus pasar internasional dengan harga tinggi karena mutunya yang baik. Namun produksikopi cenderung menurun yang mengakibatkan permintaan akan kopi mengalami penurunan yangdisebabkan oleh beberapa faktor, baik faktor alam dan sistem yang digunakan masih tradisional.Upaya peningkatan produksi kopi telah dilakukan pemerintah dengan berbagai cara, namunlemahnya teknologi pendukung menjadi salah satu kendala peningkatan produksi kopi. Tujuanyang ingin dicapai adalah untuk mengetahuai apakah produksi kopi mengalami peningkatan ataupenurunan dari waktu ke waktu. Untuk memenuhi kebutuhan kopi maka dilakukan prediksi denganmenggunakan Regresi linear sederhana atau Simple Regresi Linear yang merupakan salah satumetode statistik yang dipergunakan dalam produksi untuk melakukan peramalan ataupun prediksitentang karakteristik kualitas maupun kuantitas. Simple Regresi Linear terdiri dari satu buah variabelbebas (x) dengan satu buah variabel terikat (y). Dengan melakukan prediksi menggunakan MetodeRegresi Linear dapat memberikan informasi yang membantu para petani dan pemerintah dalammengambil kebijakan guna meningkatkan produksi kopi di Kabupaten Manggarai. Hasil yangdiperoleh dari penelitian ini yang melibatkan 5 periode yaitu dari tahun 2011-2015 nilai tertinggipada tahun 2015 sebesar 1.537,38 ton dan nilai terendah pada tahun 2011 sebesar 1.109. Setelahdilakukan pengujian menggunakan MSE dan MAPE di peroleh nilai MSE 43,112% dan MAPE20,001% sehingga pengujian menggunakan MAPE jauh lebih baik dalam menghitung akurasiprediksi produksi kopi

Keywords

produksi kopi, statistik, Simple Regresi Linear

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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