In this assessment of the use of Bayes Theorem (BT) for ascertaining the probability of Jesus’ bodily resurrection, I argue that neither apologists nor sceptics succeed in making their case, since both work on a presuppositional basis, often entering improbable values into their BT equations. Although BT works well enough in many areas of ordinary life, it cannot be successfully applied to the resurrection of Jesus for which we have little reliable data by modern historical standards. In this paper I suggest that we might more fruitfully take an analogical approach, as secular historians often do, by comparing the Gospel accounts of Jesus’ resurrection with contemporary claims by some to have “seen” Jesus, of which Phillip Wiebe has gathered a useful collection. Should we find that these recent claims lack credibility in affirming the real presence of Jesus then, by analogy, the same may be true of the resurrection _par excellence_.