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Marginal likelihood for parallel series

Authors: McCullagh, Peter;

Marginal likelihood for parallel series

Abstract

Suppose that $k$ series, all having the same autocorrelation function, are observed in parallel at $n$ points in time or space. From a single series of moderate length, the autocorrelation parameter $β$ can be estimated with limited accuracy, so we aim to increase the information by formulating a suitable model for the joint distribution of all series. Three Gaussian models of increasing complexity are considered, two of which assume that the series are independent. This paper studies the rate at which the information for $β$ accumulates as $k$ increases, possibly even beyond $n$. The profile log likelihood for the model with $k(k+1)/2$ covariance parameters behaves anomalously in two respects. On the one hand, it is a log likelihood, so the derivatives satisfy the Bartlett identities. On the other hand, the Fisher information for $β$ increases to a maximum at $k=n/2$, decreasing to zero for $k\ge n$. In any parametric statistical model, one expects the Fisher information to increase with additional data; decreasing Fisher information is an anomaly demanding an explanation.

Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/07-BEJ119 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm)

Related Organizations
Keywords

ancillary statistic, random orthogonal matrix, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, group orbit, marginal likelihood, Statistics Theory (math.ST), Non-Markovian processes: estimation, phylogenetics, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), Problems related to evolution, Bartlett identity, decreasing Fisher information, FOS: Mathematics, combination of information, profile likelihood

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid