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Forecasting Paratransit Ridership Using Discrete Choice Models with Explicit Consideration of Availability

Authors: Benjamin, Julian; Kurauchi, Shinya; Morikawa, Takayuki; Polydoropoulou, Amalia; Sasaki, Kuniaki; Ben-Akiva, M;

Forecasting Paratransit Ridership Using Discrete Choice Models with Explicit Consideration of Availability

Abstract

In most developed countries, the population of the elderly and disabled is growing rapidly. These individuals require transportation service suited to their needs. Such service may be provided by applying emerging technologies to dial-a-ride transit. This research develops a methodology to quantitatively evaluate the impact of paratransit services on a traveler’s mode choice behavior. The mode choice model explicitly considers availability of alternative modes and includes latent factors to account for taste heterogeneity. Stated preferences are also used to elicit preferences for new paratransit services. The methodology is empirically tested with data collected in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. The model system developed is applied to evaluate the effect of improving service attributes and the impact of the introduction of new cost-effective modes on modal shares. Results of the policy analysis indicate that ( a) transit policy changes, such as fare reduction, would have little effect on automobile driver and automobile passenger shares; ( b) an improved reservation system for dial-a-ride services would produce shifts in mode share; ( c) the proposed new bus deviation service was favored; ( d) free bus service reduces dial-a-ride share; and ( e) an increase in awareness of a dial-a-ride system would significantly increase its share.

Country
Australia
Keywords

People with disabilities, Disabled persons, ridership - forecasting, 330, Supply, Discrete choice models, Handicapped persons, ridership - old people, Paratransit services, Ridership, Scenarios, policy - disability, mode - paratransit, Choice models, Projections, Aged, Market share, Elderly persons, Disabled people, ridership - mode choice, Availability, Senior citizens, Patronage (Transit ridership), Modal choice, Old people, Choice of transportation, Policy analysis, Physically handicapped persons, Dial a ride, Winston-Salem (North Carolina), Older people, Mode choice, Forecasting

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
16
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
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