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Eye-tracking causality

Authors: Tobias Gerstenberg; Matthew F. Peterson; Noah D. Goodman; David Lagnado; Joshua Tenenbaum;
Abstract

How do people make causal judgments? What role, if any, does counterfactual simulation play? Counterfactual theories of causal judgments predict that people compare what actually happened with what would have happened if the candidate cause had been absent. Process theories predict that people focus only on what actually happened, to assess the mechanism linking candidate cause and outcome. We tracked participants' eye movements while they judged whether one billiard ball caused another one to go through a gate or prevented it from going through. Both participants' looking patterns and their judgments demonstrated that counterfactual simulation played a critical role. Participants simulated where the target ball would have gone if the candidate cause had been removed from the scene. The more certain participants were that the outcome would have been different, the stronger their causal judgments. These results provide the first direct evidence for spontaneous counterfactual simulation in an important domain of high-level cognition.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Perception|Motion Perception, Male, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology|Problem Solving, Cognition and Perception, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Perception|Vision, Eye Movements, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Perception|Touch, Taste, and Smell, open data, Social and Behavioral Sciences, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Perception|Audition, Psychology, Eye Movement Measurements, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology|Biases, Framing, and Heuristics, Middle Aged, Causality, FOS: Psychology, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology, Female, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Perception|Picture Processing, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Perception|Vestibular Systems and Proprioception, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology|Learning, Adult, Logic, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology|Consciousness, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Psychology|Cognition and Perception, intuitive physics, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Perception|Embodied Cognition, eye tracking, mental simulation, Judgment, Young Adult, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology|Creativity, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology|Reasoning, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology|Judgment and Decision Making, Humans, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Perception, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Perception|Perceptual Organization, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology|Attention, Cognitive Psychology, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology|Memory, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology|Concepts and Categories, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology|Imagery, open materials, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Psychology|Cognitive Psychology, counterfactuals, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cognitive Psychology|Language, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Perception|Multisensory Integration, PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Perception|Action

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    popularity
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    influence
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
76
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze