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Personality and Individual Differences
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Uncertain inference in random intercept cross-lagged panel models: An example involving need for cognition and anxiety and depression symptoms

Authors: Sorjonen, Kimmo; Nilsonne, Gustav; Melin, Bo; Ingre, Michael;

Uncertain inference in random intercept cross-lagged panel models: An example involving need for cognition and anxiety and depression symptoms

Abstract

Background: Using random-intercept cross-lagged panel models (RI-CLPM), researchers have concluded that within-individual need for cognition (WI-NFC) negatively affects subsequent within-individual anxiety and depression symptoms (WI-ADS). However, RI-CLPM may be susceptible to spurious results due to regression to the mean. We investigated the risk of spurious associations by fitting two different RI-CLPM:s and evaluating whether results were consistent. Methods: A traditional RI-CLPM, an alternative RI-CLPM where covariance between WI-NFC and WI-ADS at the same wave was replaced by a directional regression effect, as well as a stable trait, autoregressive trait, state (STARTS) model, were fitted to data from a representative community-dwelling Dutch sample.Results: Both the traditional and the alternative RI-CLPM indicated a negative effect of initial WI-NFC on subsequent WI-ADS. However, while the former effect implies a negative association the latter effect implies, contrarily, that an increase in WI-NFC predicted an increase in WI-ADS. The STARTS model indicated strong autoregressive effects but no cross-lagged effects between WI-NFC and WI-ADS.Limitations: Only data from a Dutch sample collected 2007-2018 were included. It is possible that findings would not generalize to other samples. Both NFC and ADS were self-rated. A large proportion of values were missing. Conclusion: Spurious effects may occur in RI-CLPM due to regression to the mean. Specifically, a cross-lagged effect of WI-NFC on subsequent WI-ADS, demonstrated in earlier research, may be spurious. Knowledge that it may not be possible to treat or prevent ADS through measures to increase NFC is of clinical relevance.

Keywords

Random intercept cross-lagged panel model, Stable trait autoregressive trait state, Psykologi, (RI-CLPM), Psychology, Spurious effects, (STARTS) model, Anxiety and depression symptoms, Need for cognition

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
30
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
hybrid