
doi: 10.2523/49313-ms , 10.2118/49313-ms
Abstract This paper describes three alternatives to Monte-Carlo simulation: (a) the first-order second moment method, (b) the point estimate method, and (c) the first-order reliability method, for the assessment of uncertainty in reservoir engineering calculations. These techniques are proposed as more suitable than Monte-Carlo simulation when information regarding parameter uncertainty is limited, the forward model is computation intensive, and/or the probability associated with only a limited number of model outcomes is of interest.
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