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Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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Döviz Kurundan Tüketici Fiyatlarına Asimetrik Geçiş Etkisi: NARDL Yöntemi

Authors: Rümeysa Erkan;

Döviz Kurundan Tüketici Fiyatlarına Asimetrik Geçiş Etkisi: NARDL Yöntemi

Abstract

Döviz kurundaki hareketlerin tüketici fiyatları üzerinde yarattığı etkinin incelendiği bu çalışmada, 2003:01 ile 2023:09 arası 249 gözlemden oluşan aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışma kapsamında, iki değişken arasındaki asimetrik ilişki NARDL (Doğrusal Olmayan Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Model) yöntemi ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlardan hareketle, Türkiye’de döviz kuru ve enflasyon oranı arasında kısa dönemde asimetrik uzun dönemde ise simetrik bir ilişki olduğu görülmektedir. Sonuçlar uzun ve kısa dönem olarak ikiye ayrıldığında, uzun dönemde döviz kurunda %1’lik bir değişme (artış veya azalış) enflasyon oranı üzerinde %.0.589’luk bir artışa neden olmaktadır. Kısa dönemde ise döviz kurunda %1’lik bir artış olması enflasyon oranı üzerinde %0.314’lük bir artış ve %1’lik bir azalış ise %0.204’lük bir azalışı beraberinde getirmektedir.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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