
doi: 10.2307/352066
This paper challenges the theory that the US divorces rate rises in periods of prosperity and falls during economic recessions. This theory 1) is based on tenuous evidence 2) may be based on simply eyeballing 2 trends and 3) contradicts microeconomic studies that show a negative association between husbands or familys socioeconomic status and the probability of marital dissolution. This paper reexamines the influence of economic conditions on the divorce rate through a multivariate time-series analysis of annual data from the post-World War II US. The divorce rate is positively and significantly correlated with the female labor force participation rate and the percentage of the population aged 20-29. Contrary to the usually accepted view of the relationship between divorce and economic conditions the correlation between the divorce rate and the unemployment rate (lagged one year) is positive and statistically significant. The divorce rate tends to fall following periods of relative prosperity (at least as measured by low unemployment rates) and tends to rise following periods of economic recession. Finally wars influence on the divorce rate is ambiguous; bivariate correlates suggest that the divorce rate fell during and immediately after the Korean War but rose during and immediately after the Vietnam War. The limited nature of this study made it impossible to consider the many possible determinants of the divorce rate. A high educational level and a late age at marriage which both reduce the divorce rate on a microlevel have risen steadily in the postwar period but the divorce rate has also shown a sharp increase. The liberalization of divorce laws is often cited as a reason for the increase in divorces but it is not at all certain that this happens. The likeliest explanation of the relationship between economic conditions and the divorce rate is that it has changed over time.
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