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doi: 10.2307/1928426
ECONOMIC crises and depressions are primarily social products. In the complex process by which they are brought about, Nature often plays a significant part. The major responsibility, however, rests on men, through multifarious private actions and numerous public policies. Of course, no individual, group, or government strives to bring on a crisis or depression. Rather with motives of private gain and public good appraisals, forecasts, and commitments are made, and actions taken, which give rise to a condition of more or less serious disequilibrium. Major crises and severe depressions commonly result from the unfortunate conjuncture of a considerable number of disproportionately developed or internally weak situations, often not previously recognized as such. The severity of the crisis, and the depth and duration of the depression, largely depend upon the number of parts of the economic structure in which serious weakness exists, and the difficulty with which such weaknesses can be corrected and adjustments made to the whole. Among the distinguishable parts of the economic machine in which fallacious ideas, erroneous appraisals, mistaken forecasts, and ill-judged actions may create an unbalanced condition, the positions of great staples of production, trade, and consumption are important. The intricate task of analyzing the factors responsible for the occurrence and intensity of crisis, recession, and depression, and the factors that hamper or promote recovery, requires the services of students of commodity economies. Such services in particular cases are needed in the formulation of adequate general theories of economic " conjuncture."1 With this objective I present here, with interpretations, some salient facts regarding one great staple, with special reference to the crisis and depression of I929-34.2 Wheat is a basic food product, the preferred if not invariably the principal cereal in the diet of most of the population of what may be called the commercial world. It is grown by millions of farmers, over a large part of the agricultural world. It is a major source of income for large agricultural groups. Its price has a powerful influence on prices of other grains and of farm land, thereby affecting much larger agricultural groups. The income of these groups is a dominant factor in the volume of business and income of various non-farming groups. In volume and in value, wheat is one of the most important commodities entering into domestic and international trade. Its movement therefore vitally affects commercial transportation interests, and its price is of vital concern to speculative and financial interests. It is, moreover, prominent among the commodities with which national policies have dealt. In this latest major recession and depression, which has been notably severe in agriculture,3
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