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Estimation of Dependence in Multivariate Extreme Value Statistics

Authors: Ho, Nguyen Khanh Le;

Estimation of Dependence in Multivariate Extreme Value Statistics

Abstract

I den multivariat ekstremværdianalyse kan den ekstremale afhængighedsstruktur mellem stokastiske variable karakteriseres på flere måder. En fuldstændig karakterisering kan opnås med spektralmålet eller stabil-haleafhængighedsfunktionen. Alternativt kan man opsummere den ekstremale afhængighed med et enkelt tal, kendt som haleafhængighedskoefficienten. Denne koefficient måler styrken af den ekstremale afhængighed mellem komponenterne af en bivariat stokastisk variabel. Der findes i litteraturen mange velfungerende estimatorer for haleafhængighedskoefficienten. Disse estimatorer tager dog ikke højde for kovariater og beskytter heller ikke mod kontamination i de givne data, hvilket dermed vil påvirke kvaliteten af estimeringen negativt, især når relevante data er sjældne. For at løse disse problemer præsenterer vi en robust ikke-parametrisk metode til at estimatere den betingede haleafhængighedskoefficient ved hælpe af såkaldte minimum density power divergence kriteriet. Asymptotiske egenskaber af estimatoren studeres under passende regularitetsbetingelser.I litteraturen er der introduceret adskillige risikomålere, der angiver, hvordan påvirkningerne fra ekstreme hændelser kan dæmpes. I den multivariate sammenhæng kan der være interesse for risikoen forbundet med en stokastisk variabel, hvor en relateret variabel bliver ekstrem. For at kvantificere sådan en risiko er det marginale forventede underskud blevet indført. Eksisterende estimatorer for dette risikomål tager dog ikke højde for kovariater der følger med de givne data, og som kan inkorporeres for at forbedre estimeringens nøjagtighed. Derfor præsenterer vi en estimator for den betingede marginale forventede underskud. Der er to hovedingredienser for denne estimator: en in-sample estimator og en ekstrapolationsmetode, når den relateret variabel er ekstrem. Disse studeres separat i to kapitler, hvor asymptotisk normalitetet af den foreslåede estimator i hvert kapitel etableres for en bred klasse af betingede bivariate fordelinger, med tunghalede betingede marginale fordelinger ved hjælpe af empiriske procesargumenter. Blandt de eksisterende risikomål i litteraturen er den marginale gennemsnitlig overskridelse, som er det forventede overskridelse af én risiko, der ligger over en høj grænseværdi, betinget af, at en relateret variabel overskrider en anden høj grænseværdi. I denne afhandling introducerer vi en generalisering af dette risikomål i regressionsindstillingen, det såkaldte betingede marginale gennemsnitlig overskridelsesmoment. Vi præsenterer en estimator for dette nye mål og etablerer dens asymptotiske normalitet under passende betingelser.Udførelsen af estimatoren, der er introduceret i hvert kapitel vil blive evalueret med en simuleringsundersøgelse. Effektivieten og den praktiske anvendelighed vil blive illustreret på reelle datasæt.

In multivariate extreme value analysis, the extremal dependence structure between random variables can be characterized in several ways. A complete characterization can be obtained from the spectral measure or the stable tail dependence function. Alternatively, one can summarize the extremal dependency by a single number, known as the tail dependence coefficient. This coefficient measures the strength of the extremal dependence between the components of a bivariate random variable. Several well-performing estimators for the tail dependence coefficient have been introduced in the literature. However, these estimators do not take into account the presence of random covariates nor do they protect against potential contamination in the given data, which will adversely affect the quality of the estimation, especially when relevant data are scarce. To address these issues, we present a robust non-parametric method to estimate the conditional tail dependence coefficient using the minimum density power divergence criterion. The asymptotic properties of the estimator are studied under suitable regularity conditions.In order to mitigate the impacts of extreme events, numerous risk measures have been introduced in the literature. In the multivariate context, the interest may be in the risk associated with one random variable when a related variable becomes extreme. The marginal expected shortfall was introduced to quantify such risk. Existing estimators for this measure do not take into account the presence of random covariates, which can be incorporated to improve the accuracy of the estimation. As such, we present an estimator for the conditional marginal expected shortfall. There are two main ingredients for this estimator: an in-sample estimator and an extrapolation method when the related variable is extreme. These are studied separately in two chapters, where the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator in each chapter is established for a wide class of conditional bivariate distributions, with heavy-tailed conditional marginal distributions using empirical process arguments.Among existing risk measures in the literature is the marginal mean excess, which is the expected excess of one risk above a high threshold conditional on a related variable exceeding another high threshold. In this thesis, we introduce a generalization of this measure in the regression setting, the so-called conditional marginal excess moment. We present an estimator for this new measure and establish its asymptotic normality under suitable conditions.The performance of the estimator presented in each chapter will be evaluated by a simulation study. The efficiency and practical applicability will be illustrated on real datasets. 

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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