Admissions committees in dental schools are charged with the responsibility of selecting candidates who will succeed in school and become successful members of the profession. Identifying students who will have academic difficulty is challenging. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive value of pre‐admission variables for the first‐year performance of six classes at one U.S. dental school. The authors hypothesized that the variables undergraduate grade point average (GPA), undergraduate science GPA (biology, chemistry, and physics), and Dental Admission Test (DAT) scores would predict the level of performance achieved in the first year of dental school, measured by year‐end GPA. Data were collected in 2015 from school records for all 297 students in the six cohorts who completed the first year (Classes of 2007 through 2013). In the results, statistically significant correlations existed between all pre‐admission variables and first‐year GPA, but the associations were only weak to moderate. Lower performing students at the end of the first year (lowest 10% of GPA) had, on average, lower pre‐admission variables than the other students, but the differences were small (≤10.8% in all categories). When all the pre‐admission variables were considered together in a multiple regression analysis, a significant association was found between pre‐admission variables and first‐year GPA, but the association was weak (adjusted R2=0.238). This weak association suggests that these students’ first‐year dental school GPAs were mostly determined by factors other than the pre‐admission variables studied and has resulted in the school's placing greater emphasis on other factors for admission decisions.