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Astin Bulletin
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Article . 2009
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Taylor Approximations for Model Uncertainty within the Tweedie Exponential Dispersion Family

Taylor approximations for model uncertainty within the Tweedie exponential dispersion family
Authors: Alai, Daniel H.; Wüthrich, Mario V.;

Taylor Approximations for Model Uncertainty within the Tweedie Exponential Dispersion Family

Abstract

AbstractThe use of generalized linear models (GLM) to estimate claims reserves has become a standard method in insurance. Most frequently, the exponential dispersion family (EDF) is used; see e.g. England, Verrall. We study the so-called Tweedie EDF and test the sensitivity of the claims reserves and their mean square error of predictions (MSEP) over this family. Furthermore, we develop second order Taylor approximations for the claims reserves and the MSEPs for members of the Tweedie family that are difficult to obtain in practice, but are close enough to models for which claims reserves and MSEP estimations are easy to determine. As a result of multiple case studies, we find that claims reserves estimation is relatively insensitive to which distribution is chosen amongst the Tweedie family, in contrast to the MSEP, which varies widely.

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Switzerland
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Keywords

Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics, claims reserving, prediction error, power variance function, claims reserving; exponential dispersion family; model uncertainty; power variance function; tweedie's exponential dispersion models; prediction error, Tweedie's exponential dispersion models, tweedie's exponential dispersion models, exponential dispersion family, Risk theory, insurance, model uncertainty

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze