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Astin Bulletin
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Astin Bulletin
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Premium Calculation for Fat-tailed Risk

Premium calculation for fat-tailed risk
Authors: Gay, Roger;

Premium Calculation for Fat-tailed Risk

Abstract

When insurance claims are governed by fat-tailed distributions considerable uncertainty about the value of the tail-index is often inescapable. In this paper, using the theory of risk aversion, a new premium principle (the power principle – analogous to the exponential principle for thin-tailed claims) is established and its properties investigated. Applied to claims arising from generalized Pareto distributions, the resultant premium is shown to be the ratio of the two largest expected claims, for which the ratio of the actual claims is an unbiased as well as a consistent estimator. Whereas thin-tailed claim premiums are determined largely by the first two moments of the claims distribution, fat-tailed claim premiums are determined by the first two extremes. The context of risk-aversion leads to a natural model for incorporating tail-index uncertainty into premiums, which nevertheless leaves the basic ratio structure unaltered. To illustrate the theory, possible ‘premiums’ for US hurricane data are examined, which utilize the consistent pattern of observed extremes.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics, tail-index uncertainty, Statistics of extreme values; tail inference, Risk theory, insurance, exponential principle, power principle, constant risk aversion, expected value of extremes

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
bronze