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Astin Bulletin
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Phase-type Approximations to Finite-time Ruin Probabilities in the Sparre-Andersen and Stationary Renewal Risk Models

Phase-type approximations to finite-time ruin probabilities in the Sparre Andersen and stationary renewal risk models
Authors: Stanford, David; Avram, Florin; Badescu, Andrei; Breuer, Lothar; Da Silva Soares, Ana; Latouche, Guy;

Phase-type Approximations to Finite-time Ruin Probabilities in the Sparre-Andersen and Stationary Renewal Risk Models

Abstract

The present paper extends the “Erlangization” idea introduced by Asmussen, Avram, and Usabel (2002) to the Sparre-Andersen and stationary renewal risk models. Erlangization yields an asymptotically-exact method for calculating finite time ruin probabilities with phase-type claim amounts. The method is based on finding the probability of ruin prior to a phase-type random horizon, independent of the risk process. When the horizon follows an Erlang- l distribution, the method provides a sequence of approximations that converges to the true finite-time ruin probability as l increases. Furthermore, the random horizon is easier to work with, so that very accurate probabilities of ruin are obtained with comparatively little computational effort. An additional section determines the phase-type form of the deficit at ruin in both models. Our work exploits the relationship to fluid queues to provide effective computational algorithms for the determination of these quantities, as demonstrated by the numerical examples.

Country
Belgium
Keywords

Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics, Algèbre linéaire et matricielle, Risk theory, insurance, Computational problems in statistics, sciences

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
17
Average
Top 10%
Average
bronze