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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2007 . Peer-reviewed
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Consumer Confidence and Elections

Authors: Hardouvelis, Gikas A; Thomakos, Dimitrios D;

Consumer Confidence and Elections

Abstract

An event study analysis is performed on consumer confidence around election times using an effective sample of 84 national elections from 1985 through 2005 in the EU-15 countries. Consumer confidence is measured monthly using identical surveys, which began in 1985 and were gradually adopted by all EU-15 countries. Consumer confidence increases a number of months before the date of national elections and falls subsequently, a pattern that differs depending on whether the incumbent party wins or loses. Consumer confidence is able to predict positively the probability of re-election of the incumbent party and has extra predictive power over and above several macroeconomic variables that are used in the political business cycle literature. A similar behavior characterizes consumer confidence in the United States.

Keywords

consumer confidence; EU-15; fiscal conditions; incumbent party; macro-economy; national elections; political business cycle; USA, jel: jel:H3, jel: jel:E6, jel: jel:D7

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
bronze