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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2006 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Journal of the American Statistical Association
Article . 2008 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Records in Athletics Through Extreme-Value Theory

Authors: Einmahl, John H. J.; Magnus, Jan R.;

Records in Athletics Through Extreme-Value Theory

Abstract

In this paper we shall be interested in two questions on extremes relating to world records in athletics.The first question is: what is the ultimate world record in a specific athletics event (such as the 100m for men or the high jump for women), given today's state of the art?Our second question is: how `good' is a current athletics world record?An answer to the second question will also enable us to compare the quality of world records in different athletics events. We shall consider these questions for each of twenty-eight events (fourteen for both men and women).We approach the two questions with the probability theory of extreme values and the corresponding statistical techniques.The statistical model is of nonparametric nature, but some `weak regularity' of the tail of the distribution function will be assumed.We will derive the limiting distribution of the estimated quality of a world record.While almost all attempts to predict an ultimate world record are based on the development of top performances over time, this will not be our method.Instead, we shall only use the top performances themselves.Our estimated ultimate world record tells us what, in principle, is possible now, given today's knowledge, material (shoes, suits, equipment), and drugs laws.

Country
Netherlands
Related Organizations
Keywords

Endpoint estimation, ranking, statistics of extremes, Endpoint estimation;exceedance probability;ranking;statistics of extremes;world record, world record, Endpoint estimation; exceedance probability; ranking; statistics of extremes; world record, exceedance probability, jel: jel:C13, jel: jel:C14, jel: jel:L83

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
46
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
bronze