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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2005 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2015
Data sources: EconStor
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The Interpretation of Coefficients of the Vector Autoregressive Model

Authors: Elcyon Caidado Rocha Lima;

The Interpretation of Coefficients of the Vector Autoregressive Model

Abstract

Johansen (2002) suggests a counterfactual experiment that can be implemented in the vector autoregressive model to interpret the coefficients of an identified cointegrating relation. This article proposes an alternative counterfactual experiment ("design of experiment") that, contrary to the one suggested by Johansen, does not imply a dichotomy of short run and long run values. The experiment interprets the coefficients of an identified cointegrating relation. It is based on the idea that the coefficients, and some operations with them, are projections - at different horizons - conditional on paths of the variables of the model and on exogenous shocks in the error terms of the equations of a structural VAR. The model dynamics can be used to test if these values can be generated by exogenous shocks in these error terms. It is also feasible to construct, as was shown by Doan, Litterman and Sims (1984), a plausibility index for these exogenous shocks. The analysis of the proposed conditional projections can be as useful as checking coefficients, of the matrix with the contemporaneous correlations among variables, for the correct sign and significance in a structural VAR. It can be an important complement to the impulse response function analysis.

Keywords

ddc:330, C53, C32

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze