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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2004 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2004
Data sources: EconStor
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Forecasting and Estimating Multiple Change-Point Models with an Unknown Number of Change Points

Authors: Koop, Gary; Potter, Simon M.;

Forecasting and Estimating Multiple Change-Point Models with an Unknown Number of Change Points

Abstract

This paper develops a new approach to change-point modeling that allows for an unknown number of change points in the observed sample. Our model assumes that regime durations have a Poisson distribution. The model approximately nests the two most common approaches: the time-varying parameter model with a change point every period and the change-point model with a small number of regimes. We focus on the construction of reasonable hierarchical priors both for regime durations and for the parameters that characterize each regime. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo posterior sampler is constructed to estimate a change-point model for conditional means and variances. We find that our techniques work well in an empirical exercise involving U.S. inflation and GDP growth. Empirical results suggest that the number of change points is larger than previously estimated in these series and the implied model is similar to a time-varying parameter model with stochastic volatility.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

Markovscher Prozess, 330, HB, HA, Strukturbruch, Bayesian, 310, 510, hierarchical prior, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Prognoseverfahren, Economic Theory, C11, Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion, USA, ddc:330, Statistics, E17, Statistische Verteilung, Inflation, structural break, Bayesian; structural break; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; hierarchical prior, Econometric models ; Time-series analysis, C22, Schätzung, jel: jel:C22, jel: jel:C11, jel: jel:E17

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze