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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6...
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2025
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
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Bayesian Smoothed Quantile Regression

Authors: Bingqi Liu; Kangqiang Li; Tianxiao Pang;

Bayesian Smoothed Quantile Regression

Abstract

The standard asymmetric Laplace framework for Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) suffers from a fundamental decision-theoretic misalignment, yielding biased finite-sample estimates, and precludes gradient-based computation due to non-smoothness. We propose Bayesian smoothed quantile regression (BSQR), a principled framework built on a kernelsmoothed, fully differentiable likelihood. Methodologically, the symmetrizing property of our objective reduces inferential bias and aligns the posterior mean with the true conditional quantile. Theoretically, we establish posterior consistency and a Bernstein–von Mises theorem under misspecification, delivering asymptotic normality and valid frequentist coverage via a generalized Wilks phenomenon, while guaranteeing global posterior existence unlike empirical likelihood approaches. Computationally, BSQR enables Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for BQR, alleviating high-dimensional mixing bottlenecks. In simulations, BSQR reduces out-of-sample prediction error by up to 50% and improves sampling efficiency by up to 80% relative to asymmetric Laplace benchmarks, with uniform and triangular kernels performing particularly well. In a financial application to asymmetric systemic risk, BSQR uncovers distinct regime shifts around the COVID-19 period and yields sharper yet well-calibrated predictive quantiles, underscoring its practical relevance.

Keywords

Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Economics and business, Primary: 62F15, 65C05, Secondary: 62E20, 62P20, Methodology, Econometrics (econ.EM), Econometrics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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