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Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5...
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5...
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2025
Data sources: EconStor
EconStor
Research . 2025
Data sources: EconStor
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Trade Sanctions

Authors: Egorov, Konstantin; Korovkin, Vasily; Makarin, Alexey; Nigmatulina, Dzhamilya;

Trade Sanctions

Abstract

How effective are trade sanctions? We study the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia following February 2022, when Western countries banned exports accounting for 36% of Russia's prewar import value. Combining novel, hand-collected records of these sanctions with Russian customs data, firm balance sheets, domestic railway shipments, and government procurement contracts, we provide the most comprehensive analysis to date of the economic impact of trade sanctions on a target country. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that imports of sanctioned country-product varieties into Russia saw a sharp 55% decline after the war's onset. Although we document substantial rerouting through third countries, it has not fully offset the direct import losses: total imports of sanctioned products fell by 27% through 2023. Russian firms that had relied on soon-to-be-sanctioned imports experienced a 14% decline in output during the same period, not offset by competing firms or entrants. Similar declines are present for manufacturing and technology firms, and firms along the military supply chain. Affected firms have also experienced reduced government procurement sales and incurred additional losses when their buyers or suppliers were exposed to sanctions. Overall, our findings suggest that, contrary to widespread claims of ineffectiveness, export sanctions on Russia have had far-reaching adverse effects.

Keywords

trade sanctions, ddc:330, F14, H56, international trade, sanctions, export controls, Russia-Ukraine war, D74, geoeconomics, F51, D22

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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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