
This paper proposes an eigenvalue-based small-sample approximation of the celebrated Markov Chain Monte Carlo that delivers an invariant steady-state distribution that is consistent with traditional Monte Carlo methods. The proposed eigenvalue-based methodology reduces the number of paths required for Monte Carlo from as many as 1,000,000 to as few as 10 (depending on the simulation time horizon $T$), and delivers comparable, distributionally robust results, as measured by the Wasserstein distance. The proposed methodology also produces a significant variance reduction in the steady-state distribution.
12 pages, originally published in the proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference 2025
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Risk Management, Data Structures and Algorithms, Econometrics (econ.EM), Statistics Theory (math.ST), I.6, FOS: Economics and business, Risk Management (q-fin.RM), Statistics Theory, FOS: Mathematics, Pricing of Securities, Data Structures and Algorithms (cs.DS), Econometrics, Pricing of Securities (q-fin.PR)
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Risk Management, Data Structures and Algorithms, Econometrics (econ.EM), Statistics Theory (math.ST), I.6, FOS: Economics and business, Risk Management (q-fin.RM), Statistics Theory, FOS: Mathematics, Pricing of Securities, Data Structures and Algorithms (cs.DS), Econometrics, Pricing of Securities (q-fin.PR)
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