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Finance Research Letters
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4...
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2024
License: CC 0
Data sources: Datacite
DBLP
Preprint . 2024
Data sources: DBLP
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Sentiment Trading with Large Language Models

Authors: Kemal Kirtac; Guido Germano;

Sentiment Trading with Large Language Models

Abstract

We investigate the efficacy of large language models (LLMs) in sentiment analysis of U.S. financial news and their potential in predicting stock market returns. We analyze a dataset comprising 965,375 news articles that span from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2023; we focus on the performance of various LLMs, including BERT, OPT, FINBERT, and the traditional Loughran-McDonald dictionary model, which has been a dominant methodology in the finance literature. The study documents a significant association between LLM scores and subsequent daily stock returns. Specifically, OPT, which is a GPT-3 based LLM, shows the highest accuracy in sentiment prediction with an accuracy of 74.4%, slightly ahead of BERT (72.5%) and FINBERT (72.2%). In contrast, the Loughran-McDonald dictionary model demonstrates considerably lower effectiveness with only 50.1% accuracy. Regression analyses highlight a robust positive impact of OPT model scores on next-day stock returns, with coefficients of 0.274 and 0.254 in different model specifications. BERT and FINBERT also exhibit predictive relevance, though to a lesser extent. Notably, we do not observe a significant relationship between the Loughran-McDonald dictionary model scores and stock returns, challenging the efficacy of this traditional method in the current financial context. In portfolio performance, the long-short OPT strategy excels with a Sharpe ratio of 3.05, compared to 2.11 for BERT and 2.07 for FINBERT long-short strategies. Strategies based on the Loughran-McDonald dictionary yield the lowest Sharpe ratio of 1.23. Our findings emphasize the superior performance of advanced LLMs, especially OPT, in financial market prediction and portfolio management, marking a significant shift in the landscape of financial analysis tools with implications to financial regulation and policy analysis.

Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Quantitative Finance - Trading and Market Microstructure, Econometrics (econ.EM), Computational Finance (q-fin.CP), Machine Learning (cs.LG), Trading and Market Microstructure (q-fin.TR), FOS: Economics and business, Quantitative Finance - Computational Finance, Portfolio Management (q-fin.PM), Quantitative Finance - Portfolio Management, Economics - Econometrics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
76
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
hybrid