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Journal of the European Economic Association
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Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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Complexity and Time

Authors: Enke, Benjamin; Graeber, Thomas; Oprea, Ryan;

Complexity and Time

Abstract

Abstract A large literature shows that people’s valuation of delayed financial rewards violates exponential discounting, exhibiting a hyperbolic pattern: high short-run impatience that strongly decreases in the length of the delay. We test the hypothesis that the hyperbolic pattern in measured discount rates over money reflects mistakes driven by the complexity of evaluating delayed payoffs. We document that hyperbolicity (i) is strongly associated with choice inconsistency and cognitive uncertainty, (ii) increases in overt complexity manipulations, and (iii) arises nearly identically in computationally similar tasks that involve no actual payoff delays. Our results suggest that even if people had exponential discount functions, complexity-driven mistakes would cause them to make hyperbolic choices. We examine which experimental techniques to estimate present bias are (not) confounded by information-processing constraints.

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Keywords

noise, cognitive uncertainty, ddc:330, C91, present bias, D91, G00, bounded rationality, complexity, hyperbolic discounting, 330 Economics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
hybrid