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Business-cycles and Cash-on-Market: Pre-money Startup Valuation in the Macroeconomic Environment

Authors: Berre, Max; Le Pendeven, Benjamin;

Business-cycles and Cash-on-Market: Pre-money Startup Valuation in the Macroeconomic Environment

Abstract

How do business-cycles impact startup-valuations? While several studies explore VC startupecosystems and pre-money valuations, relatively-few delve deeper into the role of macro-level economic factors in influencing those startup deals valuations. Using a dataset of 1,089 venturecapital investments in European Union and European Economic Area markets, this article examines macroeconomic, cyclical and macro-sectoral influences on VC startups pre-money VC valuations. Our findings show that business-cycles impact startup-valuation both directly and indirectly. Beyond DCF factors, startup-valuations are impacted via by business-cycles directly, and via local venture-capital market-size. By using a Structural Equation Model approach, our findings contribute to entrepreneurship and financial-intermediary literature by exploring indirect and endogenous relationship possibilities finding that most determinants are transmission-channels rather than independent drivers. Our findings effectively tie-together startup-valuations, intermediary markets, and macroeconomic determinants.

Keywords

Valuation Startup Venture Capital Entrepreneurial Finance Business-cycle Structural Equation Model, [QFIN.GN] Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/General Finance [q-fin.GN], Startup, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), Venture Capital, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Structural Equation Model, Valuation, [QFIN.ST] Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Statistical Finance [q-fin.ST], FOS: Economics and business, Entrepreneurial Finance, Business-cycle, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Quantitative Finance - General Finance, General Finance (q-fin.GN)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green