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Global Combinations of Expert Forecasts

Authors: Qian, Yilin; Thompson, Ryan; Vasnev, Andrey L;

Global Combinations of Expert Forecasts

Abstract

Expert forecast combination—the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple subjectmatter experts— is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research in this area has exclusively concentrated on local combination methods, which handle separate but related forecasting tasks in isolation. Yet, it has been known for over two decades in the machine learning community that global methods, which exploit taskrelatedness, can improve on local methods that ignore it. Motivated by the possibility for improvement, this paper introduces a framework for globally combining expert forecasts. Through our framework, we develop global versions of several existing forecast combinations. To evaluate the efficacy of these new global forecast combinations, we conduct extensive comparisons using synthetic and real data. Our real data comparisons, which involve expert forecasts of core economic indicators in the Eurozone, are the first empirical evidence that the accuracy of global combinations of expert forecasts can surpass local combinations.

Country
Australia
Related Organizations
Keywords

European Central Bank, local forecasting, Survey of Professional Forecasters, 330, multi-task learning, global forecasting, Forecast combination

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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Average
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