
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4182794
handle: 2123/29354
Expert forecast combination—the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple subjectmatter experts— is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research in this area has exclusively concentrated on local combination methods, which handle separate but related forecasting tasks in isolation. Yet, it has been known for over two decades in the machine learning community that global methods, which exploit taskrelatedness, can improve on local methods that ignore it. Motivated by the possibility for improvement, this paper introduces a framework for globally combining expert forecasts. Through our framework, we develop global versions of several existing forecast combinations. To evaluate the efficacy of these new global forecast combinations, we conduct extensive comparisons using synthetic and real data. Our real data comparisons, which involve expert forecasts of core economic indicators in the Eurozone, are the first empirical evidence that the accuracy of global combinations of expert forecasts can surpass local combinations.
European Central Bank, local forecasting, Survey of Professional Forecasters, 330, multi-task learning, global forecasting, Forecast combination
European Central Bank, local forecasting, Survey of Professional Forecasters, 330, multi-task learning, global forecasting, Forecast combination
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