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The Econometrics of Global Warming

Authors: Razzak, Weshah A.;

The Econometrics of Global Warming

Abstract

Evidence-based policy of global warming is best relying on a relevant sample of data. We choose a sample of annual data from 1959 to-date to provide some statistically robust stylized facts about the relationships between actual CO2 and temperature. Visually, there is a clear upward trend in both data. Time series analyses suggest that CO2 is difference-stationary and temperature is trend-stationary. Thus, the moments (mean, variance, etc.) of the data in levels are functions of time, which means that the correlation between the two variables may be spurious. Most importantly is that the variance of CO2 (and all greenhouse gases) are significantly smaller than the variance of temperature, hence they cannot explain the variations in temperature. We find no statistically robust evidence of correlation, long run co-variation, long run common trend, or common cycles between CO2 and temperature over a period of 60 years. Nonetheless, at most 40 percent of the variance of the Northern Hemisphere temperature is due to , 20 percent of the Southern Hemisphere, and much less of global temperature.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Q54, ddc:330, cycle, temperature, Econometrics of unit root, global warming, greenhouse gasses, trend, fossil fuel consumption, CO2, VAR, C3, C22, C01

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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