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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2021
Data sources: EconStor
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The ECB's Tracker: Nowcasting the Press Conferences of the ECB

Authors: Marozzi, Armando;

The ECB's Tracker: Nowcasting the Press Conferences of the ECB

Abstract

This paper proposes an econometric framework for nowcasting the monetary policy stance and decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) exploiting the ow of conventional and textual data that become available between two consecutive press conferences. Decompositions of the updated nowcasts into variables' marginal contribution are also provided to shed light on the main drivers of the ECB's reaction function at every point in time. In out-of-sample nowcasting experiments, the model provides an accurate tracking of the ECB monetary policy stance and decisions. The inclusion of textual variables contributes signifi- cantly to the gradual improvement of the model performance.

Related Organizations
Keywords

ddc:330, E37, Dynamic Factor Model, E47, E52, Natural Language Processing, Monetary Policy, Forecasting

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze