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The Review of Economic Studies
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
License: OUP Standard Publication Reuse
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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Eliciting Multiple Prior Beliefs

Authors: Hill, Brian; Abdellaoui, Mohammed; Colo, Philippe;

Eliciting Multiple Prior Beliefs

Abstract

Abstract Despite the increasing importance of multiple priors in various domains of economics, choice-based incentive-compatible multiple-prior elicitation remains an open problem. This paper develops a solution, comprising a preference-based identification of a subject’s probability interval for an event, and a method for eliciting it. The method applies under weak decision-theoretic assumptions, with no need for probabilistic sophistication. To demonstrate its feasibility, we implement it in three incentivized experiments on artificial and natural sources of uncertainty. Intervals elicited by our method are sensitive to the direction and amount of information and are typically consistent with “objective” probabilities where available. We find a predominance of non-degenerate probability intervals, with intervals being wider when there is less information or predictability. The probability intervals elicited with our method are similar to those stated by subjects on aggregate, suggesting that the method can provide behavioural foundations for the use of stated probability-interval techniques in the field.

Keywords

[SHS.PHIL] Humanities and Social Sciences/Philosophy, D.D8.D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze