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Does Oil Price Uncertainty Affect Economic Activity?

Authors: Kuper, G.H.; van Soest, D.P.;

Does Oil Price Uncertainty Affect Economic Activity?

Abstract

The change in investment and output in response to changing energy prices depends on whether energy prices increase or decrease. In the literature, this asymmetry is attributed to irreversibility of investment and uncertainty with respect to energy prices. The empirical literature does not explicitly take uncertainty into account. In this paper we measure oil price uncertainty as the time-varying conditional standard deviations from univariate GARCH models using high-frequency data and estimate the effect of uncertainty. On average, the effects of uncertainty on energy use and energy intensity are larger if energy prices drop.

Country
Netherlands
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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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