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Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Working Papers
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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Bank Capital and Real GDP Growth

Authors: Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico; Kovner, Anna;

Bank Capital and Real GDP Growth

Abstract

We study the relationship between bank capital ratios and the distribution of future real GDP growth. Growth in the aggregate bank capital ratio corresponds to a smaller left tail of GDP—smaller crisis probability—but at the cost of a smaller right tail of growth outcomes—smaller probability of exuberant growth. This trade-off persists at horizons of up to eight quarters, highlighting the long-range consequences of changes in bank capital. We show that the predictive information in bank capital ratio growth is over and above that contained in real credit growth, suggesting importance for bank capital beyond supplying credit to the nonfinancial sector. Our results suggest that coordination between macroprudential and monetary policy is crucial for supporting stable growth.

Keywords

ddc:330, growth-at-risk, quantile regressions, threshold regressions, G21, capital ratios, C22, E32

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Average
Average
gold