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Modeling Extreme Events: Time-Varying Extreme Tail Shape

time-varying extreme tail shape
Authors: Schwaab, Bernd; Zhang, Xin; Lucas, André;

Modeling Extreme Events: Time-Varying Extreme Tail Shape

Abstract

A dynamic semi-parametric framework is proposed to study time variation in tail fatness of sovereign bond yield changes during the 2010--2012 euro area sovereign debt crisis measured at a high (15-minute) frequency. The framework builds on the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for modeling peaks over thresholds as in Extreme Value Theory, but casts the model in a conditional framework to allow for time-variation in the tail shape parameters. The score-driven updates used improve the expected Kullback-Leibler divergence between the model and the true data generating process on every step even if the GPD only fits approximately and the model is mis-specified, as will be the case in any finite sample. This is confirmed in simulations. Using the model, we find the ECB program had a beneficial impact on extreme upper tail quantiles, leaning against the risk of extremely adverse market outcomes while active.

Country
Netherlands
Keywords

extreme value theory, ddc:330, observation-driven models, EuropeanCentral Bank (ECB), G11, dynamic tail risk, C22, Securities Markets Programme (SMP), European Central Bank (ECB)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
bronze