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Tracking the Dynamics and Allocating Tests for COVID-19 in Real-Time: An Acceleration Index with an Application to French Age Groups and Départements

Authors: Baunez, Christelle; Degoulet, Mickael; Luchini, Stéphane; Pintus, Patrick; Teschl, Miriam;
APC: 1,392.88 EUR

Tracking the Dynamics and Allocating Tests for COVID-19 in Real-Time: An Acceleration Index with an Application to French Age Groups and Départements

Abstract

Abstract An acceleration index is proposed as a novel indicator to track the dynamics of the COVID-19 in real-time. Using French data on cases and tests for the period following the first lock-down - from May 13, 2020, onwards - our acceleration index shows that the ongoing pandemic resurgence can be dated to begin around July 7. It uncovers that the pandemic acceleration has been stronger than national average for the [59 − 68] and especially the 69 and older age groups since early September, the latter being associated with the strongest acceleration index, as of October 25. In contrast, acceleration among the [19 − 28] age group is the lowest and is about half that of the [69 − 78], as of October 25. In addition, we propose an algorithm to allocate tests among French départements, based on both the acceleration index and the feedback effect of testing. Our acceleration-based allocation differs from the actual distribution over French territories, which is population-based. We argue that both our acceleration index and our allocation algorithm are useful tools to guide public health policies as France enters a second lock-down period with indeterminate duration. JEL Classification Numbers I18; H12

Country
France
Keywords

sub-national allocation of tests, Adult, Male, Adolescent, Science, Physical Distancing, COVID-19 Testing, indicator of epidemic dynamics, Humans, Child, Pandemics, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Models, Statistical, SARS-CoV-2, Health Policy, Q, R, Infant, Newborn, COVID-19, Infant, Middle Aged, acceleration Index, Child, Preschool, Medicine, Female, [SHS] Humanities and Social Sciences, France, real-time Analysis, Research Article

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    6
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold