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Measuring Extreme Price Risks by Different Statistical Methods: An In-Depth Case Study in the Crude Oil Market

Authors: Quynh Trang Nguyen;

Measuring Extreme Price Risks by Different Statistical Methods: An In-Depth Case Study in the Crude Oil Market

Abstract

Crude oil prices are particularly volatile. Managing such price risks is vital for participants in financial markets, in particular the oil market. In the perspective of a long position, we conduct an in-depth study of popular existing statistical approaches as well as a recently developed method to estimate Value at Risk of the next day's oil price — a measurement of potential extreme price risks. We then validate the estimations via tests of accuracy, independence, and a combination of both criteria. The approaches that capture heteroscedasticity in the data, namely conditional Extreme Value Theory and Filtered Historical Simulation, perform considerably better than the pure bootstrapping method — Historical Simulation — and the (sub)asymptotic-target approach — Average Conditional Exceedance Rate.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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