
Abstract. We propose a non‐parametric local likelihood estimator for the log‐transformed autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) (1) model. Our non‐parametric estimator is constructed within the likelihood framework for non‐Gaussian observations: it is different from standard kernel regression smoothing, where the innovations are assumed to be normally distributed. We derive consistency and asymptotic normality for our estimators and show, by a simulation experiment and some real‐data examples, that the local likelihood estimator has better predictive potential than classical local regression. A possible extension of the estimation procedure to more general multiplicative ARCH(p) models withp > 1 predictor variables is also described.
330, consistency, asymptotic normality, 510, kernel regression estimator, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), Asymptotic properties of nonparametric inference, local likelihood, Nonparametric regression and quantile regression
330, consistency, asymptotic normality, 510, kernel regression estimator, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), Asymptotic properties of nonparametric inference, local likelihood, Nonparametric regression and quantile regression
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