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Pure@Namur
Article . 2003
Data sources: Pure@Namur
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2003 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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The Information Content of Implied Volatility Indexes for Forecasting Volatility and Market Risk

Authors: GIOT, Pierre;

The Information Content of Implied Volatility Indexes for Forecasting Volatility and Market Risk

Abstract

In this paper, we assess the efficiency, information content and unbiasedness of volatility forecasts based on the VIX/VXN implied volatility indexes, RiskMetrics and GARCHtype models at the 5-, 10- and 22-day time horizon. Our empirical application focuses on the S&P100 and NASDAQ100 indexes. We also deal with the information content of the competing volatility forecasts in a market risk (VaR type) evaluation framework. The performance of the models is evaluated using LR, independence, conditional coverage and density forecast tests. Our results show that volatility forecasts based on the VIX/VXN indexes have the highest information content, both in the volatility forecasting and market risk assessment frameworks. Because they are easy-to-use and compare very favorably with much more complex econometric models that use historical returns, we argue that options and futures exchanges should compute implied volatility indexes and make these available to investors.

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Belgium
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    popularity
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    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
7
Average
Top 10%
Average
Green